19 November 2017

Weaker Than Expected US Orders and Shipments

#
Share This Story

Durable goods orders fell 5.7% month over month in March, below the consensus (-3.0%). As anticipated, the decline was centered in the volatile components, particularly defense (-33.2%) and non-defense aircraft (-48.2%). Although the core capital goods orders were up 0.2% this number was softer than was expected (0.5%) and was accompanied by a downward revision to February, to -4.8% from -2.7%. In the first quarter as a whole, core orders were up a solid 16.7% quarter over quarter at an annualized rate, although this represents a modest slowdown relative to the 20.4% gain in Q4 (Figure 1). A similar picture was evident in core shipments, with a softer-than-expected, 0.3% month over month, gain in March, a downward revision to February (to 1.2% from 1.9%) and a deceleration in the first quarter of 2013. This is consistent with market view that real equipment and software investment will provide less of a boost to GDP growth in Q1 than in Q4.Based upon trends it would not be surprising to see a modest downside risk to the forecasted 3.0%.  

Figure 1: Core orders and shipments 

WeakerUSOrdersApril26 

Join Our Online Community
Join the Better Way To Retire community and get access to applications, relevant research, groups and blogs. Let us help you Retire Better™
FamilyWealth Social News
Follow Us