America had 5 million job openings at the end of November,
the most since 2001, according to new government data. That means the U.S.
isn't just back to pre-recession levels, it's humming better than it has in a
decade. In fact, last year was the best year for job growth since 1999. CNNMoney
polled numerous economists, and they were nearly split on the issue.
It's a hot debate at the Federal Reserve as well. The Fed
doesn't want to raise interest rates until the job market is solidly better. The
data has been so strong that Barclays economist Michael Gapen predicts the
labor market will be back to its average levels by next month, and Sam Bullard
of Wells Fargo dubs the current situation "normal-like." Unemployment,
the official barometer for the health of the U.S. job market, fell to 5.6% in
December. That's certainly in the range of normal.
Buzz about new jobs: There's
also anecdotal evidence that more Americans are getting jobs. A popular trend
on photo-sharing site Instagram is to take a photo of yourself on your first
day of work and tag it #newjob.
CNNMoney profiled Joshua Wolfe of Oklahoma who went from
being a part-time restaurant worker in November to having a full-time
job with benefits by the end of 2014. His lucky break came when he chatted
with a regional sales manager for rental company while he was waiting in line
at a fast food restaurant. Their casual conversation led to an interview, which
led to a job.
Show me the wage
increase: Economist Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial says America's job
market is "nowhere near" normal. She points to the lack of wage
growth. Median weekly earnings in the U.S. are just shy of $800 -- the
same as in 2007 after adjusting for inflation. It's hard for a family to
feel any better off when their pay isn't keeping up with the cost of living.
Fewer Americans are
working: Another red flag is the number of people who have jobs or are
actively looking for one -- the so-called labor force participation rate. It's
fallen to 62.7%, the lowest since Jimmy Carter was president. What that means
is nearly four in 10 Americans aren't in the labor force. There are logical
reasons for this: They could be disabled or taking care of children. There are
also demographic shifts with the Baby Boomers retiring, so we would expect some
drop off. But people could be so discouraged that they have given up on finding
a job.
Even among those still in the labor force, almost 3 million
have been looking for work for about half a year or longer.
Is this a 'new
normal?' Most economists told CNNMoney they expect the jobs picture to
continue to improve. Many were willing to go as far as to say it could be normal
by the end of the year, if not sooner, especially if job growth stays so
strong. But a few are beginning to question whether America is in a "new
normal" -- a place where jobs are plentiful again, but wages aren't going
up as expected. Then there's technological change and the ability for
companies to make much faster changes that they once did.
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