29 July 2021

Mortgage Market Is Finally Turning A Corner On Delinquency Rates

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For the first time since March 2020, the nation’s overall mortgage delinquency rate decreased from the year before. While on a local level, some areas are still struggling from job losses and natural disasters, the nation is moving in the direction of recovered financial health for borrowers.

CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights report for April 2021.

For April, 4.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 1.4 percentage point decrease in delinquency compared to April 2020, when it was 6.1%. This month’s overall delinquency marks the lowest rate in a year.

To gain an accurate view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In April 2021, the delinquency and transition rates, and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:

 · Early-stage delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1%, down from 4.2% in April 2020.

·  Adverse delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.3%, down from 0.7% in April 2020.

· Serious delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 3.3%, up from 1.2% in April 2020.

· Foreclosure inventory rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from April 2020.

· Transition rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, down from 3.4% in April 2020.

CoreLogic’s data for April 2021 reports its first year-over-year decrease and the lowest overall delinquency rate since the onset of the pandemic as job and income recovery enables more homeowners to remain or return to current mortgage payment status.

Additionally, in an effort to help borrowers who are in forbearance programs, financial institutions and government entities are continuing to enact provisions that give homeowners ample opportunity to bounce back and keep their homes.

 “The sharp rebound in the economy, as well as a potent combination of government fiscal and regulatory help, is fueling unprecedented demand for residential housing and enabling people to buy and stay in their homes,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The drop in delinquency rates is a further manifestation of the benefits of these tail winds. Barring an unforeseen change, we expect rates to continue to fall and home prices rise over the next 12 to 18 months.”

 “Natural hazard events and job loss in the oil and gas industry during the past year continue to affect local delinquency rates, despite a general decline in delinquency rates in many urban areas,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Of all metros, Odessa and Midland, Texas, had the largest one-year jumps in serious delinquency rates, followed by Lake Charles, Louisiana, which was hit hard by Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020.”

State and metro takeaways 

· In April, nearly all states logged a decrease in annual overall delinquency rates (only Wyoming experienced a slight increase with a 0.1 percentage-point uptick), and a significant portion of metro areas posted at least a small annual decrease, with only eight experiencing a year-over-year increase.

· Among metros, Odessa, Texas, still recovering from job losses in the oil industry, had the largest annual overall delinquency increase with 2.4 percentage points.

· Other metro areas with significant overall delinquency increases included Midland, Texas (up 2.3 percentage points); Lake Charles, Louisiana (up 0.8 percentage points); Enid, Oklahoma (up 0.7 percentage points) and Casper, Wyoming (up 0.6 percentage points).

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