U.S. holiday shopping is on track for a modest 3.7 percent
rise this year after strong turnout during the Thanksgiving and Black Friday
weekend and thanks to strong online sales, the National Retail Federation said
on Sunday after releasing an annual consumer poll. The industry group’s poll
this year uses different methodology than last year, and it did not estimate
total sales for the four-day weekend. But its broad conclusions added to other
research showing that in-store shopping was about the same as a year ago and
that online shopping had jumped, putting total sales ahead of last year.
Black Friday is considered the kickoff to holiday shopping,
and retailers will change strategy based on the weekend’s sales. Last year,
retailers continued Black Friday-level discounts into December, sparking a
buying rush in the week before Christmas. NRF Chief Executive Officer Matt Shay
said that he was encouraged by signs of improving consumer sentiment, helped by
low unemployment and cheap gas. He said retail executives he had spoken to were
generally pleased with how the weekend went.
People on average bought more and paid less for it, said
Craig Johnson, principal at retail consultancy Consumer Growth Partners. He
projected total weekend sales would be up 2 percent from last year, as rising
online sales balanced out slowing in-store demand. By changing its survey
methodology, the NRF threw a curve ball for analysts and media that closely
watch its spending numbers for the Thanksgiving weekend.
The NRF said that its survey of 4,281 consumers, conducted
on Nov. 27 and Nov. 28 by research firm Prosper Insights & Analytics,
showed that shoppers on average spent about $300 over the four-day weekend
through Sunday. The NRF said that is not comparable to last year's figure of $381
due to changes in methodology. It found 151 million people would shop in stores
and online over the weekend, beating its own forecast from a few weeks ago by
some 11 percent. Almost equal numbers of shoppers visited physical stores and
shopped online, it said.
Prosper Principal Analyst Pam Goodfellow noted that the
question on spending in the new survey offered suggestions on what types of
products it wanted feedback on like home decor and apparel, reducing the
possibility that shoppers would include spending on food in their answers.
The new survey also specifies it is asking about the
Thanksgiving weekend, while the previous poll does not appear to have been as
clear, said Ramesh Swamy, a long-time retail analyst and executive vice
president of retailer Curacao.
The change in methodology came after the survey fell under scrutiny
in recent years, including last year when it showed average spending had
dropped 6.4 percent and total spending over the weekend slid 11 percent to
$50.9 billion, sparking worries about spending that proved largely unfounded as
retail sales over the season rose 4.1 percent.
Shay said he thought retailers had been able to attract a
higher number of shoppers than initially forecast over the Thanksgiving weekend
because of promotions and better targeting of consumers through the "small
screen" of their mobile phones. But the NRF survey also pointed to the
risk of tough price competition ahead. One-third of shoppers said all of their
purchases over the weekend were driven by promotions, and two in five said they
think discounting will increase from now until Christmas Day. Separate research
released on Sunday by analytics firm comScore showed that spending through
desktop computers rose 9 percent to $1.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day and
increased 10 percent on Black Friday to $1.66 billion.
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