U.S. Growth In Q3 To Guide Dollar
The US dollar was mixed on Friday. Investors'
appetite for risk rose and safe haven currencies (JPY and CHF) fell while
positive China and Brexit news saw the NZD, EUR, GBP and AUD advance against
the USD. The Canadian dollar was dragged down in the last trading day of the
week after softer than expected retail sales and inflation data. Next week's
Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy meeting is anticipated to bring a 25 basis
point rate hike. Despite the miss, inflation has been above the central bank's
target and businesses are optimistic about strong sales.
Euro Caught Between Brexit and Italian Budget
The EUR/USD fell 0.41 percent in the last
five days. The single currency is trading at 1.1510 after rising on Friday due
to a combination of softer US housing data and positive Brexit news. The
gradual pace of rate lifts by the U.S. Federal Reserve had a negative impact on
previously owned homes in September.
The euro rallied on Friday after a report
that Theresa May's government is ready to drop the time limit demand on the
Irish border. The EU and the UK are said to be close to a deal, 90 percent by
the estimate of the EU's top negotiator, but the final 10 has proven hard to
agree on.
Italian budget issues continue to drag on the
euro. The threat of a downgrade of Italian debt does not seem to faze local
politicians that are ready to square off against Brussels.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will publish
its main refinancing rate and host a press conference on Thursday, October 25.
No changes are expected, but investors need to be aware of the tone of the
press conference as Mario Draghi could push a more dovish rhetoric.
Loonie to get BoC Rate Hike
Boost
The USD/CAD fell 0.74 percent on a weekly
basis. The currency pair is trading at 1.3117 and will look at the Bank of
Canada (BoC) for support. The central bank is highly anticipated to announce a
25 basis point interest rate hike. The central bank has lifted rates twice in
2018 and rising inflation is forcing the hand of the BoC.
The rate decision has been priced in for some
time, but the fundamental picture has worsened, reducing the probabilities of a
rate hike while still at near 80 percent. The NAFTA renegotiation was a big
risk, keeping the BoC awake at night, and with the USMCA, some of that risk is
lifted.
With inflation data lower than forecasted, it
now validates the gradual approach of the BoC and unless there is hawkish
rhetoric from Governor Poloz, the loonie will continue to underperform against
the USD.
Oil Drops as US Weekly Buildup Pressures
Prices
West Texas Intermediate lost 0.95 percent this
week. WTI is trading at $69.36 after starting a rebound on Friday due to
surging Chinese demand. Supply concerns continue to guide daily price action.
The US weekly inventories showed a buildup last week and pushed prices lower.
Iranian exports have been cut ahead of the start of US sanctions, but there are
reports that OPEC and other major producers are already closing the gap.
Saudi Arabia is embroiled in a diplomatic
scandal and is quickly losing the goodwill it gained for having engineered
price stability with the production cut agreement. The OPEC and major producers
agreed to limit output to stop the free fall in energy prices and have extended
the agreement to this year.
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