You have heard it said that elections have consequences.
They do, but, savvy investors find ways to make money no matter the result.
Four years ago, voters supported a red sweep, handing both
houses of Congress and the presidency to Republicans. Suddenly, energy stocks
moved out of the regulatory crosshairs and the U.S. became energy independent.
Yet it didn't help the stock performance of most energy companies.
Now, energy regulations have already been tightened as the
result of a blue sweep of Congress and the election of Joe Biden to the
presidency. Since then, green energy companies have been on a tear. The market giveth and the market taketh away!
Changes to policy regularly impact stock valuations. After the Great Financial Crisis, bank
regulations were tightened, and financial stocks subsequently returned less
than half of the return for the S&P 500. The regulations enforced by the
Federal Reserve after a near meltdown in the financial system were put in place
for all the right reasons, but they had a profound impact on the performance of
those stocks. Elections swing the pendulum. Take note.
Diversification obviously helps mitigate the swings but we
can make marginal adjustments to our 401(k) allocations to reflect a changing
climate and improve our overall performance. Consider where the opportunities
might surface and head in that direction.
Look abroad
Just about every year, strategists recommend a move to
international stocks. We are told
they’re cheap compared with U.S companies. Regression to the mean — that
tried-and-true investment tenet that can take years, even decades, to realize —
is provided as another reason global stocks should outperform U.S. stocks.
I have a better reason: When the vaccine is fully
implemented and economies around the globe re-open economic growth will see a
snapback and global synchronized growth is likely to return. Add to that a weaker dollar (which is good
for emerging markets) and global stocks should benefit.
Target firms gaining from China truce
The Biden Administration is likely to strike a softer tone
in our trade relationship with China. Early indications are that the U.S. will
collaborate with our allies to develop a cohesive and coordinated approach to
working with Beijing. This may benefit technology and consumer discretionary
stocks with significant sales in China.
Leverage consumer spending surge
With Stimulus Check 2.0 on the way and another check likely
to come in the spring, Americans have been saving at a historic rate. Some of
this money was spent in the summer and spring but savings are still about $2
trillion dollars above pre-COVID levels.
Investors like to refer to this as pent-up demand. Consumer
discretionary stocks have benefited from the summer spend and are likely to
continue to do so as consumers reduce savings and get back to work in 2021.
Growth or value?
Value has enjoyed recent outperformance after years of
underperformance relative to growth. The jury is still out as to whether value
will continue to outperform.
Consequently, you should create a balance in your U.S. equity allocation
based on your risk tolerance and years to retirement. If you are young you may want to overweight
growth to value. Regardless, you don’t have to be all-in or all-out of either
group to achieve your investment goals.
Establish a comfortable allocation to each style category and adjust it
when weightings materially differ from your allocation.
Investing is about being mostly right. Monitor your
allocations — quarterly reviews are more than adequate — and don’t be afraid to
make adjustments. Because two years from now we are likely to have a new mix
shift in D.C. and a new set of opportunities to make money in the market.
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