6 May 2024

US Real GDP Growth Revised Down

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US real GDP growth in first quarter 2013 was revised to 2.4% down from the advance estimate of 2.5% and below the consensus (2.5%) expectations. The main surprises relative to the expectation consensus were larger-than-expected downward revisions to estimates of inventory growth (now estimated to have contributed 0.63pp to GDP growth compared to the previous estimate of 1.03pp) and government spending (now subtracting 0.97pp, down from a previous subtraction of 0.80pp). The government spending revision was mainly in the state and local government sector (-0.29pp versus -0.14pp). As expected, there was a small downward revision to business structures spending (- 3.5% versus -0.3% previously), but upward revisions to consumer spending (up 3.4% versus 3.2%), equipment and software spending (up 4.6% from 3.0%), and net exports (a drag of 0.21pp from -0.50pp). The release also showed the first estimate of corporate profits declined 2.2% (not annualized) in Q1 13, but were up 3.6% y/y. There was a small downward revision to the GDP price index (up 1.1% in Q1 13 versus 1.2% previously), but an upward revision to the headline (1.0% from 0.9%) and core PCE price index (up 1.3% versus 1.2%). Overall, this release does not change consensus expectations for future real GDP growth to slow to 1.5% in Q2 13, driven in large part by an expected slowdown in real consumer spending growth.
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